Excessive confidence in visually-based estimates
نویسنده
چکیده
0749-5978/$ see front matter 2011 Elsevier Inc. A doi:10.1016/j.obhdp.2011.07.002 ⇑ Fax: +1 510 643 0621. E-mail address: [email protected] People exhibit excessive confidence in visually-based estimates, which in turn biases decision making. Three experiments support this assertion. Experiment 1 shows a strong impact of presentation format on estimation of proportions. Experiment 2 shows that people rely on these erroneous estimates to make incentive-compatible decisions even when objective information can be easily obtained. Experiment 3 demonstrates that the biased decisions disappear when confidence in visually-based estimates is called into question by the perceived complexity of the stimulus. 2011 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
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